Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 13.718044 15.667745 17.757307 20.158809 22.837883 25.729913 29.083192
2025-10-12 10.857447 13.521959 16.590649 20.367529 24.870915 30.047625 36.426392
2025-10-19 9.252265 12.191219 15.736713 20.294186 25.958610 32.726058 41.377532
2025-10-26 7.937113 11.014712 14.887967 20.065511 26.742792 34.995801 45.890074
2025-11-02 7.032746 10.210870 14.359916 20.095194 27.726948 37.432177 50.589534
2025-11-09 6.340777 9.597159 13.993231 20.257302 28.830125 40.011849 55.531922
2025-11-16 5.687077 8.955150 13.509044 20.185306 29.563855 42.085664 59.844495
2025-11-23 5.097690 8.338335 12.992895 20.003324 30.095997 43.868427 63.795536
2025-11-30 4.679432 7.928753 12.727861 20.136451 31.042529 46.220404 68.578212
2025-12-07 4.420442 7.734456 12.754587 20.678386 32.577566 49.429539 74.650124
2025-12-14 3.996167 7.236040 12.277591 20.423757 32.914870 50.930265 78.338900
2025-12-21 3.489036 6.552300 11.456451 19.577773 32.304672 51.009759 79.954054
2025-12-28 3.329218 6.443541 11.547421 20.170983 33.925817 54.452118 86.650229
2026-01-04 3.141885 6.269800 11.518426 20.567077 35.256570 57.511799 92.895305
2026-01-11 2.874966 5.927149 11.178520 20.426153 35.718364 59.254873 97.202168
2026-01-18 2.623888 5.588330 10.817120 20.219882 36.052692 60.799034 101.242503
2026-01-25 2.434155 5.345645 10.602200 20.241272 36.746689 62.913038 106.214292
2026-02-01 2.283327 5.163132 10.478803 20.407462 37.678584 65.424207 111.875296
2026-02-08 2.111674 4.922233 10.230167 20.333912 38.195000 67.278423 116.546525
2026-02-15 1.941046 4.666155 9.933053 20.151152 38.507378 68.801086 120.722344
2026-02-22 1.824880 4.512180 9.816290 20.284994 39.365571 71.235710 126.431368
2026-03-01 1.765713 4.474777 9.920629 20.830449 40.964945 74.945061 134.323404
2026-03-08 1.621020 4.235024 9.609422 20.574173 41.120232 76.232790 138.257090